How Do Recent Extensions Impact Igor Shesterkin’s Market?
Since October 1st, Boston Bruins’ Jeremy Swayman, Dallas Stars’ Jake Oettinger, Ottawa Senators’ Linus Ullmark, and Seattle Kraken’s Joey Daccord have all signed sizeable multi-year contracts with their respective teams. The ’white whale’ of them all, Igor Shesterkin, is looking to become the highest-paid goaltender of all time and it will be interesting to see the impacts of the recent deals on his market.
Shesterkin recently rejected an eight-year, $88MM contract offer from the New York Rangers and is reportedly seeking a higher salary than teammate Artemi Panarin’s $11.643MM AAV. It’s clear that he’s seeking a $96MM deal but could go as low as $94MM just to ensure he becomes the highest-paid member of the organization.
The recent comparables to Shesterkin are that of Swayman, Oettinger, and Ullmark’s contracts although many would argue he is in a league of his own. Each netminder signed for an $8.25MM salary with the first two garnering max term. There is a very reasonable argument that Shesterkin is better than each netminder listed but is he that much better to justify a nearly 50% raise on some of the better goaltenders in the league?
An eight-year contract for Shesterkin would take him to his age-37 season while the contracts given to Swayman and Oettinger will take them to 33 and 34, respectively. Shesterkin debuted in the 2019-20 season while Oettinger and Swayman debuted a year later. He leads the trio in wins, save percentage, and hardware while Swayman holds the lead in goals-against average.
He’s failed to backstop the Rangers to a Stanley Cup Final to this point but he has made two Conference Final appearances while the combination of Swayman and Oettinger have only reached one. His case for being the best goaltender in the game is a solid one but it’s going to be difficult for the Rangers to give him a $12MM salary despite the accomplishments. New York’s contention window begins and ends with Shesterkin between the pipes but they’ll still need financial flexibility to put complimentary pieces around him.
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Shesterkin’s main argument, especially concerning Oettinger, is the ever-growing issue of income tax-free states. Doing some low-stakes math, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period asserted earlier that Oettinger’s take-home pay in Dallas, TX would be approximately $5.22MM after taxes while a $12MM salary for Shesterkin in New York City, NY would net him around $5.29MM. Factoring in the cost of living in New York compared to Dallas one could reasonably ascertain Shesterkin’s justification for his asking price.
At the end of the day, because Shesterkin is such a needle-mover between the pipes, one team will likely step up and give him $12MM a year on a max-term contract. There are few present concerns that the contract won’t be with the Rangers but the recent goaltender contracts may drive a further wedge between the two parties.
