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After missing the playoffs for the fifth time in six seasons, Boston Red Sox fans are hopeful — but not optimistic — that ownership will flex its spending muscles this winter.
The Red Sox’s needs are clear and Fenway Sports Group has more than enough money to meet them all, but it first needs to address its internal matters first. Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford are all eligible for arbitration this season, and they’ll expect quite the pay raise.
MLBTradeRumors (MLBTR) released a list of expected arbitration salaries for every player entering negotiations this year. Teams and players discuss arbitration salaries by examining the rates for comparable players, but MLBTR created its own system to determine players’ most likely paydays.
Duran is rightly predicted to secure the team’s biggest pay raise before the arbitration deadline. He brought in $760,000 this year, but he’s worth much more after the MVP-caliber season he posted. He slashed .285/.342/.492 with a .834 OPS, 48 doubles, 14 triples, 21 homers and 34 stolen bases. MLBTR predicts Duran will earn a $4.9 million deal in arbitration, which seems more than fair after his stellar offensive season and incredible defensive improvement.
Estimated salaries for the Red Sox’s three arbitration-eligible players
Houck became the Sox’s ace this year and is projected to receive the second-largest pay increase of Boston’s arb-eligible players. He clocked 30 starts in a season for the first time in his career and his ERA plummeted from 5.01 to 3.12 in one year. He made $770,000 in 2024, and MLBTR expects him to leave negotiations with a $4.5 million check for the 2025 season.
Crawford didn’t post a season like Houck’s, but he still improved this year. His ERA increased to 4.36 from 4.04 last season, but he posted 54 more innings than he did last year. In 2023, Crawford was used as a starter and out of the bullpen, but he became a full-time starter and answered the call when the Sox needed him. He had well-documented struggles with allowing home runs, which is factored into MLBTR’s $3.5 million salary prediction.
Boston’s arbitration-eligible players are well worth the contract increases they’ll get this winter and their raises will be money well spent. Fortunately for the Sox, they have the fewest arbitration-eligible players in the league this offseason — the Blue Jays and Yankees have 10 negotiations to handle, the Rays have 12 and the Orioles lead the league with 15 players entering arbitration this year.
The Red Sox’s arbitration deals shouldn’t take away from their offseason spending needs. Fenway Sports Group has plenty of money to pay Duran, Houck and Crawford what they’re worth with more than enough left over to sign top-tier free agents.
