Per ESPN, Alabama Football win probabilities dip for four games, rise in four others
There was no Alabama Football game in Week 4, what happened with other teams changed ESPN’s win probabilities for the Crimson Tide. Per ESPN Analytics, Alabama’s chances dipped in four games, rose in four games, and is unchanged in one more.
ESPN remains bullish about the Alabama Crimson Tide. Sunday morning’s ESPN FPI kept Alabama at No. 2. Texas is slightly ahead of Alabama at No.1. Other SEC teams in the new FPI top 25 are Georgia (up one slot to No. 4); Tennessee (down one to No. 5); Ole Miss (No. 6); Missouri (down three to No. 13); Oklahoma (down three to No. 17); Texas A&M (down three to No. 18); LSU (up three to No. 19), and Arkansas (up six to No. 23).
Other SEC teams had big swings with Florida up 13 spots to No. 39 and the Auburn Tigers down eight spots to No. 34.
Alabama Football Regular Season Win Probabilities (per ESPN on Sept. 22)
- The Crimson Tide went from 67% to beat the Georgia Bulldogs down to 65.8%.
- Alabama also had a slight dip for a win over the Vanderbilt Commodores from 93.4% to 91.6%.
- Against the South Carolina Gamecocks, the Alabama Crimson Tide went from 94.1%, down to 91.7%.
- The only other dip in win chances for Alabama was a small one. Against the Tennessee Vols, the Crimson Tide was at 54.8% and is now at 54%.
- Alabama’s win probability went up for the Missouri game, from 81% to 83.9%.
- The biggest bump up for Alabama is against LSU. Alabama went from 85.3% to 91.6%.
- The Mercer game did not change at 99% for an Alabama win.
- Against the Oklahoma Sooners, Alabama went up from 77.4% to 78.8%.
- Alabama’s Iron Bowl chance against Auburn increased from 91.6% to 93%.
ESPN’s algorithm is sometimes doubted. Currently, per The Prediction Tracker, the FPI is the third-best computer model for predicting the outcome of games.
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