Jun 1, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Garrett Crochet (45) throws against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
The trading deadline is about marginal wins,
How much can trades improve the playoff probability and is it worth it?
As the Astros approach the August 1 trade deadline, speculation about the team’s trading intentions will become more pervasive. Presumably the main motivation will be improving the team’s playoff odds. Sure, issues like future team control—i.e., whether the player is a rental—are important, but that issue enters into the quantifying the trading cost that the team is willing to pay.
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Dan Symborski’s recent Fangraphs article discussing the Red Sox’s trading intentions uses an interesting approach to the trade deadline questions. Since this is an Astros’ column, and not a Red Sox site, I’m more interested in how his methodology applies to the Astros. He makes the insightful point that teams’ interest in trading at the deadline should be based on the marginal improvement which can be made to the team’s playoff odds. Essentially, the value of a marginal win over the rest of the season is greater for some teams than others due to larger impact on team playoff odds.
Symborski’s analysis runs the ZIPS team playoff odds as of July 5, adds an incremental 2 wins rest of season, and compares the percentage point increase in playoff odds. The Red Sox and Diamond Backs top hls list with an increase in playoff odds of 14.4 and 13.2 percentage points respectively. But we’re interested in our team, and the Astros gain the seventh most percentage points in playoff odds by trading for 2 more wins—-12.3 percentage points. According to the ZIPS model, the Astros playoff odds increase from 49.2% to 61.5%. Among the seven highest percentage “gainers,” only the Astros, Red Sox, and Padres exceed 60% playoff odds after trading for 2 rest of season (ROS) wins.
And there are different playoff odds models. If we make the (brave) assumption that the same 12.3% increase in playoff odds applies to the Fangraphs playoff model, the Astros can increase the team’s playoff odds from 55.7% to 68% by trading for two rest of season wins. Of course, the PECOTA model already gives the Astros a 74% playoff odds, which might imply there is less need to trade for additional players.
I’m not really advocating for any particular trades in this article. But, knowing that an incremental 2 win player addition could raise the odds by 12 percentage points provide a useful way to examine what a trade may or may not accomplish. So, consider this an exercise rather than a trade proposal.
