2024 MLB post-hype check-in: Evaluating former top prospects.
The development and improvement of young players is unpredictable, uncertain and sometimes very sudden. Last year, we did a post-hype check-in on several young players at the end of May. One of the players we examined was Bobby Witt Jr.
The second-year shortstop had a solid rookie season in 2022, but it was more flash than substance: power (20 home runs) and speed (30 stolen bases), but poor defense and a sub-.300 on-base percentage. By the end of May last season, he had yet to improve, hitting .228/.266/.430. Then everything clicked. In July and August, Witt hit .325 with 15 home runs. He finished the season at .276/.319/.495 with 30 home runs, 49 stolen bases and 4.4 WAR. He has been even better so far this season. In less than a year, he went from having an undetermined future to being one of the best players in the game.
Now let’s do another post-hype check-in with a new group of players. Our rules: No rookies, no players we discussed in last year’s edition and no players who have already proven themselves or received plenty of attention, such as Gunnar Henderson, Elly De La Cruz or Anthony Volpe. We’re thinking of players who were hyped as prospects and kind of forgotten about since then. We’ll include a prospect report from Kiley McDaniel and each player’s top ranking on McDaniel’s preseason top 100 lists.
Nick Lodolo, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Peak ESPN prospect ranking: No. 79 (2022)
Comment then: “Analytic models that every team uses grade his changeup as a plus pitch due to movement, but it plays closer to a 55 to the eye and he threw it only 9% of the time. Regardless,
Lodolo at times has shown three 60-grade pitches and average or better command in his best outings, leading to top-10 pick and frontline starter projections, but he looks a little more like a third/fourth starter now, though some analytics would say that’s light.”
