Astros HOF Index: What does a Kyle Tucker extension look like?
Some of you might know me. I’ve been floating around the internet for a couple of decades at least. Of course, that could be a good or bad thing depending on what you’ve heard. I write the “Value of things” series over at Battle Red Blog and I am bringing the same kind of thought process here to the Astros.
I have written four books about baseball in total, but the last two are the best ones. They are “The Hall of Fame Index” and “The Hall of Fame Index Part Two.” The general idea was to use a systematic process to evaluate players for the Hall of Fame. I will try to bring an Astrocentric look to that particular discussion in these parts.
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Today, I am playing agent and looking at what an extension might look like for Kyle Tucker. We begin by finding as many comps among corner outfielders as we can. I found a total of eight players who have already signed deals and could be considered near the class of Tucker. As you will see, only a few of them are directly comparable to Tucker, but I’m playing agent so I’m not going to fight this battle fairly.
The HOF Index utilizes baseball-reference’s WAR and FanGraphs WAR, but I will not use WAR today. Instead, I am using four offensive statistics and four fielding statistics to compare Tucker. Before I start, I should note that Juan Soto would normally be a part of this group, but he hasn’t been paid yet.
The metrics we will use are all ones that play a part in WAR. We could jump off into a tutorial, but it isn’t necessary to know the ins about outs of each one. The important thing is to see how close Tucker is to the other players on this list. From there, we will take the aggregate salaries and years for the eight players and apply an inflationary multiplier to come up with an estimated contract. Remember, I am playing agent. You pay more the longer you wait.
Aaron Judge: 165 OPS+, .415 rOBA, .751 OW%, 139.5 RC/162
Shohei Ohtani: 152 OPS+, .394 rOBA, .724 OW%, 125.5 RC/162
Bryce Harper: 143 OPS+, .392 rOBA, .712 OW%, 124.0 RC/162
Fernando Tatis: 140 OPS+, .383 rOBA, .654 OW%, 120.5 RC/162
Ronald Acuna: 139 OPS+, .398 rOBA, .710 OW%, 135.2 RC/162
Kyle Tucker: 139 OPS+, .377 rOBA, .677 OW%, 110.0 RC/162
Brandon Nimmo: 130 OPS+, .367 rOBA, .644 OW%, 99.7 RC/162
Christian Yelich: 129 OPS+, .374 rOBA, .662 OW%, 113.5 RC/162
George Springer: 126 OPS+, .361 rOBA, .614 OW%, 108.0 RC/162
Some of these guys are not particularly relevant in terms of a comparison. Unless I’m Scott Boras, I am not trying to make a comp with Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani. It also doesn’t pay for me to worry about Brandon Nimmo or George Springer on the lower end. However, all of those guys in between are decent comps to go on in terms of offensive production. Tucker fits pretty close to the mid-point in most of these metrics.
Aaron Judge: 58 Rfield, 3.2 DWAR, 0.1 FG, 58 DRS
Shohei Ohtani: 0 Rfield, -6.1 DWAR, -7.3 FG, 0 DRS
Bryce Harper: 13 Rfield, -5.4 DWAR, -7.8 FG, 3 DRS
Fernando Tatis: 16 Rfield, 2.1 DWAR, 1.0 FG, 27 DRS
Ronald Acuna: 8 Rfield, -1.4 DWAR, -1.8 FG, 5 DRS
Kyle Tucker: 37 Rfield, 1.7 DWAR, -0.9 FG, 39 DRS
Brandon Nimmo: -12 Rfield, -1.2 DWAR, -0.7 FG, 8 DRS
Christian Yelich: -8 Rfield, -5.6 DWAR, -6.6 FG. 12 DRS
George Springer: 23 Rfield, -0.1 DWAR, -3.8 FG, 12 DRS
I should note that the baseball-reference.com number for fielding runs (Rfield) includes all positions while defensive runs saved (DRS) only includes their time in right or left field. So, that would account for some of the differences you see. We eliminated Judge and Ohtaini last time and Springer and Nimmo on the lower end. Tucker is most similar to Ronald Acuna, Christian Yelich, and Fernando Tatis defensively.
Ronaldo Acuna signed his contract early, so we will eliminate him from a direct comparison. However, if we take all eight in concert, they averaged 9.6 years in contract length and 242.3 million in total contract pay outs. We should note that Shohei Ohtani’s differed money is not included in that amount.
As much as we might want to say we should simply say ten years and 250 million, things are never quite that simple. These guys signed their contracts between 2019 and 2024. The United States has averaged a three percent rate of inflation over the past dozen years. Yet, I’m a greedy agent, so you are paying me five percent per season. Remember we are removing Acuna and I’ll throw in Bryce Harper for more fun.
Fernando Tatis, 2021, 14 years, 340 million, 24.3 AAV x 1.15 = 27.9 AAV
Bryce Harper: 2019, 13 years, 330 million, 25.4 AAV x 1.25 = 31.8 AAV
Christian Yelich: 2020, 9 years, 215 million, 23.9 AAV x 1.20 = 28.7 AAV
You aren’t getting out of this without giving at least eight seasons and ten is probably the number that will work. These three players averaged 29.5 million in adjusted annual value. So, a cool ten-year and $300 million contract is the likely price I’m settling on. If I’m the Astros I’m signing that contract today and not looking back, but it’s not my money. Of course, if the agency representing Tucker would like to give me a consultant’s fee, I am all ears.
