Who will go No. 1 in the Draft? Our experts weigh the odds.
College baseball conference tournaments are upon us, and the MLB Draft is just under two months away.
While we still have plenty of baseball to watch between now and July 14, it’s never too early to hypothesize, or perhaps even fantasize, about who the Cleveland Guardians will select No. 1 overall.
More on the Draft:
Top 150 prospects | Latest mock | Order | Complete coverage
Top prospects:
Condon | Bazzana | Caglianone | Kurtz | Montgomery | Smith | Burns | Wetherholt | Griffin | Culpepper
The general consensus is that a college hitter – most likely named Charlie Condon or Travis Bazzana – will hear his name called ahead of the rest on Draft night, but as we’ve seen dozens of times before, nothing is a guarantee.
Just look at last year’s board. Dylan Crews and Paul Skenes dominated conversations all the way up until the actual event, and even then, there was no guarantee who was going to go first. As we know, the Pirates ultimately selected Skenes and that’s working out pretty well.
More from MLB Pipeline:
• Top 100 prospects | Stats | Video | Podcast | Complete coverage
So this year, while Georgia’s Condon and Oregon State’s Bazzana are favorites for the No. 1 spot, anything can happen as the NCAA season winds down.
On this week’s edition of the MLB Pipeline Podcast, our Draft experts Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo mulled over the options and made their predictions. They broke down Condon and Bazzana’s odds to go first overall and even threw in a couple dark horse candidates who could swoop in.
Mayo and Callis divvied up 100 percentage points among their candidates to go No. 1 overall, thus setting odds for the pick.
Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State (No. 2)
Callis 40% | Mayo 40%
Callis: “I think Bazzana fits the Guardians’ model a little bit more than Condon in terms of prioritizing contact and swing decisions.
“It’s way too early, nothing is set in stone, the Guardians have not made a decision, but the other teams picking near the top of the Draft believe if the Draft were today that the Guardians are taking Travis Bazzana.”
