How real are good starts from Guardians Brewers Cubs.
Last week, we focused on the early-season disappointments in Real or Not. This week, we turn our attention to the surprises — such as the new, improved and much more exciting American League Central.
Not including the shortened 2020 season, the AL Central hasn’t had more than one playoff team since 2017. It’s had just one season with two winning teams since then, in 2019. It hasn’t seen three teams with a winning record since 2014. Last season, the division was a collective 89 games under .500 in non-division games.
The early returns in 2024, however, are setting up a different storyline. The Cleveland Guardians continue to roll with clutch hitting and a great bullpen, the Kansas City Royals are playing well, the Minnesota Twins recovered from a slow start to reel off a 12-game winning streak and the Detroit Tigers are hanging around .500. Even with the woeful Chicago White Sox, the AL Central is over .500 in interdivision action.
Including the Guardians and Royals, there are five clubs that went from having playoff odds under 50% on Opening Day to over 50% now. Let’s break down those teams to see if they really are potential postseason contenders in the long run.
Chicago Cubs (27-23)
Key stat: Kyle Hendricks and Justin Steele are a combined 0-6 in 12 starts — and the Cubs are 2-10 in games those two have started. So maybe it’s a good thing that they’re over .500 despite two of the projected top starters struggling.
Hot start: Shota Imanaga looks like the steal of the offseason as he’s 5-0 with a 0.84 ERA in nine starts with 58 strikeouts, nine walks and just three home runs — plus he’s winning fans over with his personality. Imanaga was homer-prone in Japan, but he has been spotting his four-seamer with perfection and his splitter has been a true wipeout pitch. Let’s see if he can keep the ball in the park as the league makes adjustments to his repertoire.
Can he keep it going? As great as Imanaga has been, Javier Assad is right behind him at 4-0 with a 1.70 ERA.
Area of concern: The catching tandem of Miguel Amaya and Yan Gomes has struggled at the plate and the bullpen depth is a bit worrisome.
Jeff Passan’s early MLB takeaways
Offense on the decline? Which teams are for real — and which are in trouble? Let’s break down the biggest early trends — and what they mean for the rest of 2024.
10 things you need to know »
The Cubs are battling for the division lead, so they’re exactly where we thought they would be, but it has been a season of extremes: Imanaga, Assad and Jameson Taillon have carried the rotation while Steele, last year’s breakout, missed a month after getting injured on Opening Day and Hendricks has been shelled.
Manager Craig Counsell did make a tough decision in moving Hendricks, who has a 10.57 ERA while allowing a 1.048 OPS, to the bullpen to see if he can sort things out in lower-leverage situations. Hendricks has been a stalwart in the Cubs rotation since 2014, but when every batter was hitting like Ohtani against him, the Cubs couldn’t afford to keep rolling him out there. The problem is the Cubs have eight pitchers on the injured list, although they do have other starter options in Ben Brown and Hayden Wesneski. For now, Hendricks’ scheduled start on Thursday will be a bullpen game and then the Cubs will go from there.
Verdict: Real
As in, yes, the Cubs are a playoff contender. I feel like the offense has more to come: Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ and Christopher Morel have all slightly underperformed from last season while Seiya Suzuki missed 24 games after a nice start and Cody Bellinger missed a couple of weeks, too. The bullpen might need to be reconfigured a bit, especially if Brown or Wesneski have to start, but the Cubs have more depth than any other team in the division. That should play out over 162 games.
