Do the Cincinnati Reds need to make changes?
The Cincinnati Reds haven’t won a playoff series since 1995. That’s the longest active streak of not advancing in the playoffs among the big four professional sports in America. It’s not a streak you want to be the leader in. The Reds are also currently in last place in the National League Central while sitting at 2-11 over their last 13 games. Things are not going well in 2024 for the club that is in their third rebuild in the last 12 years.
This season the Reds have certainly dealt with some injuries. Matt McLain, who was arguably their best player in 2023, hasn’t play a game and if he does get on the field it’ll likely only be for the final month of the season. Brandon Williamson just began a rehab stint this week and hasn’t pitched since the middle of March. TJ Friedl has played a handful of games after a broken wrist in the spring and in the last week a broken thumb placing him back on the injured list. And then there was the failed PED test by Noelvi Marte that’s led to an 80-game suspension.
It’s fair to say that the club isn’t near, or anywhere near what the front office felt would be full strength over the first six weeks of the season.
It’s also fair to say that among the guys on the team that most of them have not played well, or relatively close to it. Two every day players are hitting at an above-average rate – Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer. Two other guys who play semi-regularly are also hitting above-average with Tyler Stephenson and Jake Fraley both having an OPS+ over 100.
Free agent signee Jeimer Candelario got out to a poor start, but he’s picked things up in May and his OPS+ is nearly up to league average. But once you get beyond there, it’s a lot of real bad hitting.
Will Benson, who got out to a slow start in 2023 and was sent back to the minors before figuring it out and crushing the ball over the final four-and-a-half months is back out to a slow start this season. He’s hitting .194 with a .287 on-base percentage. His strikeout rate of 40.1% is far and away the worst in Major League Baseball this season. No one else is even at 35% who currently qualifies for the batting title. Jonathan India is getting on base some, but he’s hitting .228 with no power. Santiago Espinal, Stuart Fairchild, Nick Martini, Luke Maile, Mike Ford, and the now on the injured list Christian Encarnacion-Strand have all failed to reach the .600 OPS mark.
To be frank – this offense has been terrible. They are 29th in batting average, 25th in on-base percentage, 24th in slugging percentage, and 28th in OPS+. They’ve been the best team on the bases this season, though, and that has helped them score more runs than their pure hitting stats would suggest. They’re still below-average when it comes to scoring runs, but they aren’t near the bottom of the league.
But it’s not just offensive problems that the team has run into this season. Closer Alexis Diaz has an ERA of 6.75 and hasn’t been able to throw strikes for nearly four consecutive months of baseball. Justin Wilson’s ERA is 6.10. Lucas Sims has an ERA of 5.84. Emilio Pagan and Fernando Cruz have been inconsistent at best and have ERA’s of 4.67 and 4.50. Overall the bullpen has been about league average when it comes to runs allowed, but when the offense has struggled every run they’ve allowed has felt more impactful because the offense hasn’t been able to get it done.
With the team in a spiral of sorts, are changes needed? I think the easy answer is: Of course.
The more difficult answer is that of a question of what the changes would be. The players simply need to start playing better. How they is accomplished is a far more difficult thing. Teams will sometimes fire the manager to try and set expectations that “this isn’t acceptable”. That seems unlikely given that David Bell is still under contract for multiple years. Maybe someone(s) on the coaching staff will be let go if things don’t turn around quickly as a “this isn’t acceptable” situation.
Offensively, some players could be optioned back to the minor leagues. Will Benson has options left. So does Jonathan India. Some of the guys on the bench do, too. But who do you call up in their place? Most of the guys in Triple-A that are hitting well are in their late 20’s and early 30’s. While possible those guys could be late bloomers or even just guys who could have one of those strange magical seasons, it’s unlikely. And for the most part, they aren’t on the 40-man roster, either.
