Houston has gotten out to its worst start in recent memory, with the woeful performance from the starting rotation among the primary reasons driving their 11-20 record. The ’Stros got Justin Verlander back a couple weeks ago after he missed several weeks building up in the wake of some early-sprin

shoulder fatigue, but his return dovetailed with a neck injury for righty Cristian Javier. There’s optimism Javier will return soon and push the rotation group to six, as KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander tweets that the right-hander will embark on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.

Even with an early no-hitter from breakout righty Ronel Blanco, Astros starters rank 27th in MLB with a 4.91 ERA. Houston’s rotation is tied for 22nd with a 21% strikeout rate and has the second-highest walk rate of any team in the game at 11.2%, trailing only the Mets. Those ugly K-BB numbers don’t lead fielding-independent numbers to be any more optimistic; the Astros’ rotation ranks 22nd in FIP (4.22) and 28th in SIERA (4.53).

Verlander’s return helped to shore things up, but the ’Stros have gotten dismal performances from right-handers J.P. France, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley (the latter of whom made just one spot start early in the year).

France’s lack of strikeouts and pedestrian command always made some regression from last year’s 3.83 ERA in 23 starts seem likely, but he’s fallen off more than even skeptics could’ve reasonably expected. He’s been rocked for a 7.46 ERA in 25 1/3 innings thanks to a walk rate that’s spiked from 8.1% to 9.9% and a home-run rate that’s ballooned to 1.76 HR/9. He’s still doing a nice job avoiding hard contact, but when opponents have managed to barrel him up, the results have been disastrous — and the increased walk rate has meant there’s more runners on base for those worst-case outcomes.

Brown looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate for a portion of the 2023 season, but the former top prospect wilted as the year wore on. Like France, his walk and home-run rates have spiked in worrying fashion; he posted an 8.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 last year but is now sitting at 12.2% and 1.96, respectively. He’s not inducing anywhere near as many chases off the plate as he did in ’23, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 10.6% to a well below-average 9%. He’s not doing himself many favors early in the count, either. The league-average pitcher has thrown a first-pitch strike at a 62.1% clip in 2024. Brown is at 52.2%.