Value of Things: the elephant in the Texans locker room.
What is missing from the Texans ramp-up?
One of the things that routinely comes up is the idea of magical thinking. Essentially, it is the expectation that everything is going to go according to plan and even some of the things you weren’t expecting will turn in your favor. It’s typically more of a fan affliction than general manager/coach affliction. They are paid to consider contingencies. That’s what we need to do here.
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It almost calls for the reverse of magical thinking which I suppose we can call disaster thinking. What is the worst thing that could happen to this football team? That should be easy and obvious. If something were to happen to C.J. Stroud then this whole thing comes into question.
I suppose some of that is unavoidable. There is only one Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Lamar Jackson. There is only one C.J. Stroud. So, a drop off is unavoidable. What you want is to be a functional football team when your starting guy is out. Some teams have navigated their way through that and some teams haven’t.
The risk you run at this point is becoming another version of the New York Jets. They built a great defense and had some pieces around Aaron Rodgers, but when Rodgers went down they didn’t have enough to be a competitive football team. If you are building an offense for a quarterback that can throw it around the yard then having a backup capable of making most of those throws is paramount.
Everyone knows I’m the numbers guy, so let me throw two important numbers out at everyone. The first is easy math. In 2023, only nine quarterbacks started every game. That’s just a shade over a quarter of the league. In case anyone thinks that’s a fluke, it was ten the year before. The facts remain that the additional game is going to make it more difficult for any player to start all 17 games. Add to that the expectation of the playoffs and having quality depth at every spot is just that much more important.
Houston Texans Backups: 52/92, 56.5%, 464 yards, 5.0 YPA, 3 TD, 3 INT, 68.6 rating
I really like Case Keenum. I don’t hate Davis Mills. However, these numbers reveal something that’s impossible to ignore. If Stroud goes down (and the numbers above demonstrate that it is more likely than not) you are not in a great position to win a football game.
Now, it is fair to point out that there is more than one way to skin a cat. If you look at what the Texans have done so far in the offseason it would be impossible to ignore that they are beefing up their defense. There are still holes, positions where they are hoping someone steps up, and contingencies that need to be accounted for there, but they are likely a better team on defense right now than they were a year ago.
The only major addition on offense is a running back and it is a running back that has a better chance of being a 20 carry guy than Devin Singletary. So, you could see a scenario where they simply ask their defense to make more plays, keep the score low, and hope their running game can lead them to victory. Still, I don’t think anyone feels that this is the team’s best or most likely path to victory.
