The Super Bullpen: Is the Astros’ Josh Hader Signing a Show of Force or Sign of Vulnerability?
After seven straight American League Championship Series appearances and six AL West titles in those seven years, the Houston Astros begin each season as kings of the castle.
Even in years like 2023, when doubts about the core’s longevity crept in and the Texas Rangers ultimately vanquished them in October, the road to the World Series has run through Houston.
Every year, observers and AL West rivals wonder if Houston’s iron grip on the AL will remain strong as Jose Altuve ages, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker creep closer to free agency and team owner Jim Crane largely avoids splashy signings, letting stars such as Carlos Correa walk.
So far, so good.
Still, count it as a data point that Crane and GM Dana Brown committed the largest free-agent deal in franchise history to a last line of defense this offseason, inking the star closer Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million contract and stacking him atop preexisting bullpen stars Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu. It’s a team-building tactic that evokes the earliest days of their run – when Greg Holland and Wade Davis formed a super bullpen in Kansas City, when the New York Yankees were rolling out Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson and Dellin Betances.
The 2014 Royals were the first team in MLB history with two relief pitchers who logged ERA+ numbers of at least 150 and strikeout rates of 35% or better. The Yankees quickly joined the club, matching it in 2015, 2017 and 2018. And then the Milwaukee Brewers did it in 2021 with Hader and Devin Williams. But the conventional wisdom around bullpen greatness has morphed a bit, broadened into more of an organizational priority than a matter of collecting two to three established superstars.
So what does a super bullpen even look like in 2024? And what does the Astros’ decision to snap up Hader say about their chances of maintaining AL dominance?
The Super Bullpen
There’s little doubt about this: Hader, Pressly and Abreu will enter the season as baseball’s most fearsome-looking bullpen trio. Among relievers with at least 150 innings over the past three seasons, the trio ranks sixth (Hader), 12th (Abreu) and 22nd (Pressly) in ERA+. And unsurprisingly, the projections see things similarly. FanGraphs’ depth charts project them for three of the 18 best ERA marks among relievers.
As closers go, there aren’t many with more bonafides than Hader. Flinging a 96 mph two-seam fastball from the left side and a diabolical 85 mph slider that allowed only a .132 wOBA in 2023 (fourth best among all pitches thrown at least 200 times), Hader has now logged two seasons with sub-1.50 ERAs in the past three years. Among pitchers with at least 200 innings since 2017, Hader’s 32.0 K-BB% ranks first, as he edges Mets closer Edwin Diaz in the metric that hints at overall pitching dominance.
He had a 158 whiff+ on his slider and a 153 mark on his two-seamer last season – both well above the 100 league average. And opposing hitters managed just a 48 and 69 BIP+ (measures damage done upon contact), respectively, on those pitches.
