Michael Skubala Nominated For Manager of the Month – Should We Be Wary?
The Manager of the Month nominees for February have been announced, and it’s no surprise our own head coach, Michael Skubala, is among those listed.
He should be a shoo-in, given that we picked up more points than any of the other League One sides in February, but I guess you never really know. The announcement will be made on Friday, meaning if he wins, he’ll likely be given the award on Saturday as we travel to Barnsley.
You know we love debunking a myth here at the Stacey West, so let’s try now? Is there a curse around the Manager of the Month award, or is it a fallacy?
I think there are two elements here – the Lincoln City element and the wider award curse. Let’s start with it in general. I have gone back two-and-a-half seasons in League One as a sample. Granted, to get a full picture, we’d need to look at every award across every division, but frankly, I don’t have the time. Still, this feels like a decent section to assess.
League One Manager of the Month
There have been 24 awards given over my chosen time period, starting with Lee Johnson for August in September 2021 and finishing with Richie Wellens for January, announced on February 9th. The evidence actually suggests there is a curse of sorts! I know, I can’t believe it either. However, these are the facts.
In 2021/22 two managers lost the game immediately after their award. One was Liam Manning, the September winner, and the other was Gareth Ainsworth. Painfully for Sir Gareth, the game he lost was the play-off final! Only two managers were able to win the game after their award – Danny Cowley in December after getting the November award and Ryan Lowe the month before with Plymouth. The other winners, Lee Johnson (twice), Liam Manning, Paul Warne, and Steven Schumacher all drew the game after winning the award. Johnson’s draw in September was the only game in eight his side did not win, and it came against Fleetwood, hardly a powerhouse of the division.
In 2022/23, the results are equally as mixed. Michael Duff (November and February) and Steven Schumacher (September) were the only managers to win after receiving their award. Duff (again) lost his first game after picking up the December award, but in fairness he had also lost the two previous before being nominated. Paul Warne (January) also lost after getting the award. Danny Cowley (August), Steven Schumacher (October) and Kieran McKenna (March and April) all drew their next games. The two draws for McKenna were the only two games they failed to win in 15, pointing absolutely to a curse! After winning the October award, Schumacher’s draw in November was against us.
This season, the ‘curse’ has not been as evident. There have been six winners, and four have won their next game – Liam Manning, John Mousinho, Ian Evatt and Paul Warne. Only Ian Evatt and Richie Wellens have won the award and have not won their next game, meaning the percentage is quite a bit higher.
Overall, since the start of the 21/22 season, after winning Manager of the Month, 37% of managers have won their next game, 25% have lost, and 37% have drawn. Or, to put it another way, 62% of manager have failed to win their next game. Is that a curse? If you consider they’ve been awarded the accolade for winning games the previous month, it does seem quite a high number.
