July 8, 2024

MLB Odds: Phillies vs. Rangers prediction, pick, how to watch

Phillies interest in the Sensational pitcher on a five-year deal which saw Rangers battle for…

While the Philadelphia Phillies project to have one of the better starting rotations in the league, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and company are apparently leaving open the possibility of adding another accomplished starter under the right circumstances.

MLB.com‘s Todd Zolecki reports that the Phillies “would take left-hander Jordan Montgomery on a one-to-two-year deal, but he isn’t ready to sign for that.”

The 31-year-old left-hander went 10-11 with a 3.20 ERA, 3.56 FIP and 4.3 WAR across 188 2/3 innings pitched in 2023, a campaign he split between the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers. Montgomery was excellent in the postseason, posting a 2.90 ERA over 31 innings, as the Rangers won the first World Series title in franchise history.

While it was perhaps predictable that there would be concerns about two-time AL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell as a free agent — because he’s never pitched in a major market, and only has two seasons where he’s pitched more than 130 innings — it is surprising that Montgomery is still a free agent.

MLB Insider Predicts Jordan Montgomery Spurns New Yankees, St. Louis  Cardinals to Return to Texas Rangers - Sports Illustrated Texas Rangers  News, Analysis and More

Montgomery was not eligible to receive a qualifying offer from the Rangers because he was traded during the 2023 season, so the Phillies, or any other interested suitor, wouldn’t have to give up draft compensation to sign him. By comparison, if the Phillies signed Snell — who rejected a qualifying offer from the San Diego Padres — they would have to surrender second-and-fifth-round picks in the 2024 MLB Draft, along with $1 million in international bonus pool money.

In recent years, the Phillies have limited their ability to sign international talent and draft future stars by signing qualified free agents, such as Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Nick Castellanos and Trea Turner. The Phillies did sign Aaron Nola — who rejected a qualifying offer — to a seven-year/$172 million deal, but because they were retaining their own player, they don’t have to give up draft compensation. Going an offseason without signing a player that requires you to give up high draft picks would probably be a good thing for the long-term health of the organization. Signing Montgomery would allow the Phillies to get better and retain their picks.

Aaron Nola, Phillies Agree to New 7-Year Contract Worth Reported $172M in  Free Agency | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors | Bleacher Report

At the same time, because Montgomery doesn’t come with a qualifying offer attached to him, he and agent Scott Boras are well within their rights to believe that should increase how much he gets in terms of dollars and years on the market. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in January that there was a belief in the sport that Montgomery hoped to top the $172 million that Nola received from the Phillies. As the regular season nears, he may have to back off of that desire, but that hardly means settling for a one-year deal.

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