Why international free agents are getting big MLB contracts
Though MLB free agency has moved at a snail’s pace for many this winter, there was one group of players who cashed in early: free agents coming to the majors from Asia’s two largest professional leagues, Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball Organization and the Korea Baseball Organization.
Led by Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers for a package worth $325 million, teams have spent over $530 million on players who, in most cases, have never played an inning in the big leagues.
That kind of guaranteed payday was unheard of even just a few offseasons ago. In 2001, Ichiro Suzuki became the first Japanese-born position player to join MLB, signing a three-year, $14 million contract with the Seattle Mariners as the first Japanese-born position player to join MLB. Adjusted for inflation, that deal would be worth just $24 million today — for a player who’s a lock to make the Hall of Fame next year.
“If he was coming over today, he’d sign for at least $150 million,” one agent said. “Probably more.”
So what has changed? Why are teams willing to give out that kind of sum to players who have never hit or thrown a major league pitch — or to those returning from Japan or Korea after struggling in MLB?
According to front office executives and agents involved in many of these deals, the market for these players this winter was years in the making.
Improved technology
The biggest change in talent evaluation since Ichiro signed his deal is simple: the ease of finding information on players in leagues across the world has improved.
Previously viewed as around the equivalent of the high minor leagues, the competition in the Japanese and Korean leagues — and more importantly how teams track performance — has grown exponentially. It has provided more certainty than ever about players.
“The world has shrunk,” said Rod Blunck, senior adviser of contracts for the Octagon Agency. “Even 10 years ago, streaming wasn’t available. Now you can watch everything.”
Though pitchers and hitters in Japan and Korea aren’t facing major-league-caliber counterparts in their respective leagues, a spin rate or release point there is the same spin rate or release point here. Teams don’t just have to rely on potentially flawed surface-level stats anymore.
“The advancements in scouting, especially the technology, have increased the ability for teams to dig into the talent and skill of those players like never before,” said Joel Wolfe, who represents Yamamoto. “Of the twelve teams in the NPB, eight have Trackman or Hawk-Eye.
“Every front office can see the analysis of every pitch thrown, every start, immediately after the data comes in as if, for example, Yamamoto or whoever pitched against the Reds yesterday.”
More data means more certainty in decision-making.
Octagon represents left-hander Shota Imanaga, who signed a four-year, $53 million contract with the Chicago Cubs last month. Blunck might have overprepared in advance of talks with the team.
“All the information on Imanaga I had that I thought was so important, they had also,” he said. ” All the same metrics that we have here [at the agency], they have there. They can compare apples to apples now.”
Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins summed it up this way: “More things can be measured now. The more we can, we can use that data to test hypotheses. The more we can test hypotheses, the more we can remove some doubt. Then we’re more willing to take on some more risk.”
Wolfe, who also represents outfielder Seiya Suzuki and pitchers Kodai Senga and Yu Darvish, was asked what’s changed just in the time since Darvish came to MLB from the NPB, signing a six-year, $60 million deal with the Texas Rangers in 2012.
“A lot has changed over the last decade and some has stayed the same,” Wolfe said. “The thing that has stayed the same is the way teams value the history, training methods, diligence and discipline of Japanese players, culturally. These players are known to be religious about baseball. That hasn’t changed. What has changed is the technology. We can measure everything now.”
