Clayton Kershaw Is a Dodger — Again
With the additions of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on deals lasting 10 and 12 years, respectively, the Dodgers are entering a new era when it comes to their headlining superstars — not to take anything away from Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, both of whom remain at or near the top of their respective games. On Monday, we learned that the next stage of Dodger baseball will also include another familiar superstar: The New York Post’s Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman reported that free agent Clayton Kershaw will return to the only team for which he’s ever pitched.
The exact terms of the deal — which is pending a physical on Thursday — have yet to emerge at this writing, but USA Today‘s Bob Nightengale reported that the deal is a “one-year, incentive-laden contract,” while The Athletic’s Andy McCullough added that the contract includes a player option for 2025. If exercised, that would allow Kershaw to join Ohtani — who won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing reconstructive surgery on his UCL this past September — in the Dodgers’ rotation.
Player options tend to carry advantages when it comes to Competitive Balance Tax accounting, a significant concern for the Dodgers, who rank second in payroll (both actual and CBT-based) only to the Mets and are nearly $12 million over the fourth-tier tax threshold of $297 million even before adding Kershaw’s salary. For example, Justin Turner’s two-year, $21.7 million deal with the Red Sox last year called for a base salary of $8.3 million for 2023, then a $13.4 million option and $6.7 million buyout. By opting out, Turner made $15 million on a deal whose average annual value was just $10.85 million.
Kershaw made $20 million last year but figures to be guaranteed less money for 2024, though bonuses for starts and/or innings could make up some of the difference. The timing of the move is more significant than the dollar amount, because neither the pitcher nor the Dodgers know exactly when the 35-year-old future Hall of Famer will throw his next competitive pitch. On November 3, he underwent surgery to repair the glenohumeral ligaments and capsule of his left shoulder, a procedure that left him “hopeful to return to play at some point next summer” (as he wrote via Instagram) but hardly assured of such a return given the significance of the procedure. Pulling from what I wrote in relation to the surgery at the time:
Given that, it’s notable that because the Dodgers open their season by playing the Padres in Seoul, South Korea on March 20 and 21, they’re allowed to put players on the 60-day injured list as of Thursday, February 8. A player on the 60-day IL doesn’t count against the 40-man roster limit, meaning that no corresponding move will have to be made to clear space for Kershaw. Had his return become official before that, it would have meant one less player the team could protect. As it is, the team likely won’t make Ryan Brasier’s two-year deal official until Thursday, either, once they move Tommy John surgery recipients Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May to the 60-day IL.
This is the third straight offseason in which Kershaw has re-signed with the Dodgers as a free agent, and as with the last two, the Dallas native weighed the possibility of pitching closer to home by signing with the Rangers. This time around, they’re defending world champions, but they’re also already spending big money on three other pitchers rehabbing from major surgeries, namely last year’s marquee free agent Jacob deGrom, who underwent his second Tommy John procedure last June and is eying August for his return; midseason acquisition Max Scherzer, who underwent surgery for a herniated disc in mid-December and is targeting a midsummer return; and December free agent addition Tyler Mahle, who underwent Tommy John surgery last May and should return sometime this summer. For them, adding a rehabbing Kershaw made less sense than adding a healthier version would have in years past, particularly with the team affected by the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy and expected to have their local television revenue reduced by as much as 15% for 2024.
Whether he pitches beyond 2024 or not, Kershaw’s return to the fold gives him the chance to craft a more dignified exit than he would have if he’d left the Dodgers this winter. In Game 1 of last year’s Division Series, he couldn’t get any of his pitches to work reliably, retired just one of the eight Diamondbacks he faced while being charged with six runs, and was unable to articulate his plans for the future after the Dodgers were swept, telling reporters, “I don’t know how to answer that right now.”
As in the past, the Dodgers respected Kershaw’s desire to take the time to weigh his options, remaining in touch with the team as he went through surgery and plotted out his next steps. “His rehab is coming along really well,” said manager Dave Roberts at the the team’s fan fest on Saturday. “I think his thought process right now is dominate the rehab process and get something done when it makes sense.”
When he was available in 2023, Kershaw generally pitched pretty well, posting a 2.46 ERA in 131.2 innings and making his 10th NL All-Star team. Left shoulder soreness sent him to the IL before he could pitch in the All-Star Game, however, and after missing six weeks, he threw just 36.1 innings in eight post-injury starts, with the quality of his stuff (as measured by both the Stuff+ and PitchingBot models) and his results both noticeably down. Picking up a table I made in November:
