The Sensational Ace who Is the Perfect Fit for the Phillies’ Roster Deal has Been Reached
Phillies fans are getting restless.
It’s no surprise; Dave Dombrowski has made some huge additions in each of the past two offseasons, signing All-Stars Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, and Trea Turner. This year, however, the team’s big star signing was fairly anticlimactic. It’s great that Aaron Nola isn’t going anywhere, but re-signing Nola doesn’t make the Phillies any better.
Yet truth be told, Philadelphia doesn’t have many places to improve. After all, we’re talking about a team that has reached the NLCS in back-to-back years. They may not be the Braves or the Dodgers, but they’re easily the third-best team in the National League.
The Phillies have five starters for the rotation. They could use some more depth, but they don’t need to go out and sign Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell – no matter what the rumor mill would have you believe.
They also have a lineup filled with talented players from one to nine. Dombrowski could add a piece in the outfield, but Johan Rojas plays a strong enough center field that the Phils don’t have to upgrade unless they make the right deal with the right player.
That leaves the bullpen as the only obvious place for a major free agent acquisition. The Phillies already have one of the nastiest arm barns in baseball, replete with dominant back-end talent and serviceable minor league depth. Still, they have one or two Opening Day bullpen spots up for grabs.
Barring an injury, those first six spots – from Alvarado to Kerkering – are set in stone. Dylan Covey was surprisingly effective in a mop-up role last season, but he’s out of options, so the Phillies shouldn’t be afraid to cut him and his $850,000 salary if a better option is available.
More importantly, though, Philadelphia can’t go into 2024 with Andrew Bellatti (or Yunior Marte/Connor Brogdon/etc.) on the Opening Day roster. Bellatti was terrific in 2022, but whatever magic beans he was using lost their powers this past season:
Simply put, the Phillies can’t just wait around for Bellatti to figure things out – they’ve already tried that. It’s a similar story with Connor Brogdon, who looked like a shell of his former self in 2023.
Thus, if nothing else, the Phillies need a better solution for that final spot in the bullpen.
And this is where Jordan Hicks enters the picture.
Dombrowski likes hard-throwing, high-ceiling pitchers. It’s why he targeted guys like José Alvarado, Gregory Soto, and Jeff Hoffman. It’s why he promoted Orion Kerkering so aggressively last fall.
He also likes experienced bullpen arms. There’s a reason he signed Craig Kimbrel last season and Brad Hand the year before.
Jordan Hicks is the rare breed of pitcher who fits both descriptions. He has reached at least 60 innings pitched in three separate seasons. He has 32 career saves, a 3.65 ERA, and 2.6 fWAR in 217 innings of relief.
Yet even so, he has untapped potential. At just 27 years old, Hicks is young for a free agent. His 100-mph sinker is tantalizing, especially for the Phillies, who throw more sinkers than almost any other team. With a few tweaks, pitching coach Caleb Cotham could turn Hicks into another Alvarado — in other words, one of the best relievers in baseball.
Perhaps that’s too much to ask, but Cotham has set high expectations with his excellent work over the last few years. Phillies fans have come to expect at least one breakout bullpen arm every season.
On the financial side, the Phillies should be able to offer whatever Hicks commands.
According to the Roster Resource estimate, Philadelphia is approximately $5 million away from the second tier of luxury tax penalties; it’s hard to imagine the Phils won’t cross that line before Opening Day, especially if they’re planning to extend Zack Wheeler this winter.
In that case, Dombrowski has about $25 million to spend before pushing the team into another level of penalties. That should be more than enough to give Wheeler a raise, sign Hicks, and still have money left over to fill out the roster and address gaps at the trade deadline.
However, Hicks won’t just land in the Phillies’ lap. Indeed, they could have quite a bit of competition for the young hurler. Most recently, the Yankees expressed interest in Hicks, and by all indications, they’re going to be aggressive in their pursuit of pitching this winter.
