Vikings playoff picture: Minnesota’s updated chances to make 2023 NFL playoffs after loss to Lions
The Vikings entered their Week 16 game against the Lions hopeful of pulling off the upset to prevent Detroit from clinching its first-ever NFC North title. They came up short in their efforts.
Minnesota stayed close against Detroit for most of the day on Sunday. The Vikings even held a 21-17 lead in the third quarter and entered the fourth trailing by just two points.
However, Detroit’s dynamic offense continued scoring at a pace that Minnesota simply couldn’t match. The Vikings fought valiantly despite losing both Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson to injuries, and even had a chance to mount a game-winning drive late.
However, Nick Mullens made one mistake too many to win, tossing a game-ending interception from the Detroit 30-yard line with just 58 seconds left in the game
The defeat not only eliminated the Vikings from the NFC North discussion, but it also damaged their chances of making the 2023 NFL postseason. Here’s where things stand for Minnesota:
Vikings playoff picture
The Vikings’ loss to the Lions dropped them to 7-8 on the season. That puts them in a four-way tie for the No. 8 spot in the NFC.
Currently, the Vikings own the tiebreakers needed to be considered the No. 8 seed. They have a head-to-head win against the Falcons while the Packers and Saints each lose the divisional tiebreakers in this scenario.
But despite this, the Vikings are behind in the NFC wild-card race. The Rams and Seahawks each leapfrogged them, as they are both now 8-7
The Vikings can still get into the postseason, but they don’t have much room for error down the stretch. They likely need to win their final two games of the season to both make up a game on the teams ahead of them and keep pace with them in the conference record tiebreaker category (the Vikings and Rams are both 6-4 against NFC opponents while the Seahawks are 6-5).
Vikings remaining schedule
The bad news for the Vikings is that they won’t have an easy path to back-to-back victories. They are playing against two divisional opponents who are in the thick of the playoff race.
Below is a look at Minnesota’s remaining opponents:
The Vikings’ strength of schedule of .600 figures to be one of the toughest in the league over the final two weeks. The good news is that the Vikings beat the Packers at Lambeau Field earlier in the season, so at the very least, they may be able to stay alive with a win over Green Bay in Week 17.
Vikings playoff chances
At present, the Vikings’ playoff chances are looking significantly lower than they were entering the week. The Sporting News’ expert prediction model gave them a 47.6 percent chance to make the postseason entering Week 16. That included a 4.9 percent chance of winning the division.
The chances of winning the NFC North have now evaporated, so that naturally will lower the Vikings’ chances. And given that they trail the Rams and Seahawks by a game for the final playoff spots, Minnesota’s postseason odds are probably now closer to 20 or 25 percent to make the postseason at best.
