Three key players sidelined to Washington getting a win over the Jets.
The Washington Commanders are traveling to New Jersey this weekend to play the New York Jets on Christmas Eve. Here are three keys to the Burgundy & Gold securing a win, presented by KIA.
1. Win against man coverage.
Here’s some expert analysis for you: the Jets’ defense is really, really good!
In all seriousness, though, the Jets’ defense has been the team’s one redeeming quality in a monstrously disappointing season. What they lack in run defense — they give up 127.9 yards on the ground — they make up for with the second-best secondary in the league, allowing just 170.4 yards through the air. They’ve also given up the second-fewest passing touchdowns (15) while also forcing 12 interceptions.
Sauce Gardner and running mate D.J. Reed get most of the praise, and rightfully so. Gardner’s cover grade from Pro Football Focus (89.8) is essentially the same as when he won Defensive Rookie of the Year honors last season (90.0), which is partly why he has been targeted almost 30 fewer times than he was in 2022. Reed, a six-year veteran, is playing the best football of his career with a cover grade of 82.6 and seven pass breakups.
But the Jets’ safeties — Jordan Whitehead and Tony Adams — are also quality players who are third and fourth on the team in tackles, respectively. Whitehead also has four interceptions, which is tied for fourth in the league and third among all safeties.
Because their secondary is so formidable, the Jets can rely on man coverage more than most teams. They allow just 6.8 yards per target in man coverage and have a defensive success rate of 57%. That could play into Washington’s favor, as **Terry McLaurin** and **Curtis Samuel** both rank among the top 20 in yards against man coverage (McLaurin is 11th with 308 yards on 16 receptions).
“We’re going to get some [deep shot] opportunities because we know they play a little bit of flatfoot with their safeties, and sometimes their corners are aggressive,” McLaurin said Wednesday. “If we get the opportunity, we definitely got to make that happen.”
McLaurin faced man coverage on both of his explosive plays against the Rams and broke loose on both, one of which resulted in a touchdown. All due respect to Rams cornerback Derion Kendrick, who McLaurin faced on those plays, but Garnder and Reed are playing better football right now. If the Commanders do manage to get open against man coverage, it will make life much easier for **Sam Howell and the offense.
2. Force Trevor Siemian to make mistakes.
The Jets have arguably had the most frustrating quarterback situation in the NFL. Their efforts to acquire Aaron Rodgers in the offseason were worth less than a quarter of action from the Hall of Fame quarterback this season, leaving them with Zach Wilson and three games from Tim Boyle.
With Rodgers unable to return from a torn Achilles and Wilson in the concussion protocol, Trevor Siemian is set to start against the Commanders. Siemian has spent the last five seasons as a backup, including a brief stint with the Jets in 2019. He’s had flashes of decent quarterback play, the most recent example coming in 2021 when he threw for 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions with the Saints in 2021, but there have also been moments where he’s struggled.
The latter was the case against the Dolphins last week. Three of his last four drives ended in disaster, as he threw two interceptions and had a sack-fumble on third-and-13.
The Commanders have the worst defense in the NFL from a statistical perspective this season, giving up league high in yards and points. Conversely, the Jets have the worst offense and average the fewest yards and points. Clearly, something has to give.
