Ranking available free agent starting pitchers for Orioles to target for 2025
Here’s how the Orioles can replace Corbin Burnes this winter
As we creep closer to the MLB offseason, the Orioles need to start thinking hard about how they’ll go about replacing Corbin Burnes at the top of the rotation. It’s possible that Mike Elias goes out and spends big on a free agent starter. While it’ll be his first foray into the top of the free agent market, realistically that’s the easiest way to acquire a new ace.
The easiest thing to do would be to bring back Burnes himself. While experts agree that he’ll be expensive, Burnes has been worth the price of admission throughout his career. Though the strikeouts were dialed back in 2024, Burnes was one of the most effective pitchers in terms of run prevention.
Burnes ran a 2.92 ERA this year and posted his third consecutive season with at least 190 innings pitched. There’s a reason that people project that he’ll earn north of $200 million this winter. He’s both very good and has a history of being reliable, and that makes him one of the most desirable free agent targets of the winter. Burnes should be the Orioles number one target but in the event that he leaves, here are a handful of other options that the O’s could target as his replacement.
1. Max Fried, Braves (Projected contract: 6 years, $175 million)
Fried and Burnes will likely command the two highest free agent pitcher contracts this winter, with both projected to earn roughly $200 million, or in Fried’s case just shy of that mark. It might sound like a lot but it’s not without reason.
For his career, Fried has a 3.07 ERA. He was very good in 2024, pitching to a 3.25 ERA with a 3.33 FIP and 166 strikeouts in 174.1 innings. While he battled injuries in 2023, he’s been a fairly reliable starter otherwise. He’s pitched at least 165 innings in 4 of the last 6 years and while he obviously didn’t reach that mark in the shortened 2020 season, he did make every possible start that year.
Fried might not be strikeout-focused enough for the Orioles front office to take notice, but he’s been one of the most consistent and reliable starters over the past several years and would be a strong addition to this Orioles’ rotation.
2. Blake Snell, Giants (Projected contract: 3 years, $105 million)
Unlike the previous two guys here, Snell isn’t known for his ability to stay healthy. Despite that, he’s been one of the best starters on a rate basis since winning his first Cy Young award in 2018. Snell has broken the 130 inning mark just twice in his career, but in both of those seasons he won the Cy Young.
Over the past three seasons, Snell has thrown a combined 412 innings with a 2.82 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and a 32.4% strikeout rate. He’s not a volume guy, but nobody is pretending that he is. And his projected contract accounts for the fact that he’s not throwing 200 innings per year.
