An offseason plan for the Reds so they can win in 2025
Well, we’re all aflutter over the hiring of Terry Francona and what it might mean for the Cincinnati Reds. Francona is generally regarded as an excellent manager, and I won’t be surprised if the team overperforms for him a bit, as the Reds always seemed to under Dusty Baker. But, I also continue to believe that the manager is a relatively small piece of the puzzle.
The season has ended (for the Reds) and we’re all thinking about next year now. I always find it helpful to try to look at the roster like I would if I were looking at a team I don’t really care about and don’t follow closely. When I do that, I see a team with good pitching and awful hitting. I mean, no one ever has enough pitching but the Reds were well above league average last year on the mound and well below it with the bat. If they’d hit like they did in 2023 (which was still not great), they might have been in the playoffs.
So how do they get enough offense to compete and what, if anything needs to be done with the pitching. Here are my opinions which, obviously, are the correct opinions to have. I don’t really think Cincinnati’s front office will do this stuff. But I think they should.
The Lineup
The following players have guaranteed lineup spots (in order of how secure those spots are):
Shortstop: Elly De La Cruz. He had 6.4 fWAR this year. Here’s a complete list of seasons by Reds shortstops that were better than that: Barry Larkin, 1996, 6.8 WAR. That’s it. That’s the entire list. Doing it at an age when most of the shortstops you want to compare him to were in the minors is stunning. I might do a longer write up on just Elly De La Cruz, but let’s just say precedent indicates that he is going to be good for a long time if he’s healthy.
Catcher: Tyler Stephenson. He had some injury recovery issues and got moved around a bit last year. This year, he just got to be a catcher. The defense and offense both rebounded and he ended up with numbers that are borderline all-star level for a catcher. He’s not going anywhere.
Second Base: Matt McLain. Yeah, he missed the whole season. Yeah, two years of getting hurt means you need a backup plan. But he continues to be very well regarded and the results have been there on the field.
Utility: Jonathan India. India had a good rebound year, but his track record is uneven. Still, with a pretty weak lineup overall, he
’s someone you find a spot for.
Center field: TJ Friedl. I’m giving him an injury pass this year for two reasons: 1. He was awfully good in 2023. 2. Outfield depth around the league is terrible. Seriously, as I was researching this piece it became clear that it’s not just the Reds who need outfielders. EVERYONE needs outfielders. It’s wild how different positions ebb and flow. In a few years, it’ll probably be “Wow, how are there so many great outfielders around now?”
That’s it for me for guaranteed spots. Yes, really. Yes, I know who I’m leaving off. I’ll get to those guys later.
What the Reds don’t need to do is roll the dice with the same bunch of question marks and hope the bottom half of the lineup isn’t just a bunch of automatic outs, like it often was in 2024.
