With the current situation surrounding the quarterback injury crisis as they prepare for new additional star to the squad depth…
This season, SB Nation has partnered with to give you a variety of articles and opinions on sports betting through the FanDuel platform. Last season, I offered 3 play prop/side market choices and picked one I would bet on at the end of the article. This season, we will focus purely on the ever-growing player prop markets and offer insight and analysis on 3 picks I like and pick one at the end to put $50 on. Over the course of the season, we’ll track the wins and losses of my final pick and see if we can finish in the profit.
The Colts are back at home looking for their first win of the season against the Chicago Bears, who themselves are 1-1. The Colts are currently 1.5 point favourites.
Not only has Caleb Williams not hit this number this season, but he hasn’t come close to it. Through the first two weeks, Williams has not attempted to throw the ball down the field much, often choosing to throw short (within 5 yards of the LOS). Despite 23 completions last week, he only had 174 passing yards. So, if the Colts can take away the deep throws, Williams won’t hit 205 yards. So while betting on the current Colts secondary is a scary thing, if they can limit the deep throws with a lot of Cover 3, Williams won’t hit 200.
Jonathan Taylor anytime touchdown odds are quite short, however his first half touchdown odds are pretty good. The Bears have allowed over 16 points per game in the first half, which is amongst the highest in the NFL. If Taylor is to score a touchdown, it is more likely to happen in the first half, rather than the 2nd half against the Bears.
Caleb Williams doesn’t have any touchdown passes this season and their offense hasn’t been able to do much damage so to say he’ll get 2 or more touchdowns is quite ambitious, even against the Colts secondary. Unfortunately, the odds on just taking Williams under 1.5 touchdowns are too short, so we’ll parlay it with Richardson to get one or more touchdowns to get the odds over 2-1. Richardson has a touchdown pass in each of his first two games and while the Bears secondary has been stout, they can be passed on.
They will limit the explosive plays like the Packers did, but I expect the Colts to be able to get more red-zone opportunities like last week, especially if they decide to run with Taylor more. So while this bet is riskier because of the parlay element, I think it’s worth a shot at good odds.
For once, I’m rooting for Gus Bradley to just call Cover 3 to limit those deep throws and to force Williams to throw underneath. For starters, it’s better for the Colts to not let Williams get loose, but more importantly, it’s better for this bet as it will force Williams to just dink and dunk.
