Tarik Skubal is the Perfect Trade Fit for the Orioles.
As much of the baseball world is aware, the Orioles have recently been linked to Tarik Skubal. The Orioles as well as the Dodgers have reportedly made calls for the Tigers ace.
Baltimore is looking to win their first World Series since 1983. They are going to need some pitching help if they hope to accomplish that goal. The Orioles have the best farm system in baseball, making a Tarik Skubal trade a possibility.
Skubal is the odds-on favorite to win the American League Cy Young this season and for good reason. The 27-year-old lefty is pitching to a 2.41 ERA this season, with 140 strikeouts in 116 innings pitched across 19 starts.
The only qualified pitcher with a better ERA in the American League is Corbin Burnes, who just happens to already be in Baltimore after a trade this offseason. Paring Skubal and Burnes would be a devastating propostion for any lineup that has to face them across a playoff series.
But why would the Tigers be willing to move Skubal?
He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and has two more years of arbitration. Realistically the Tigers could be eying an opening to compete for the division next season and Skubal could play a big role in that. So why move him? The answer is lack of offense in Detroit.
If the Tigers really hope to compete for the division next season they are going to need upgrades on offense. At this point in the season the only Tigers hitter with over 200 plate appearances and a wRC+ over 100 is Riley Green.
Colt Kieth has a wRC+ of 98 and seems to be finding his footing which is a good sign. However, then you have Spencer Torkelson who continues to struggle. On the farm there is not much hope for next year outside of Jace Jung and maybe Dillon Dingler offensively.
If you listen to the Just Baseball show, I am sure you heard the reference to the rant made on 97.1 WXYT in Detroit. The Tigers are 46-28 when they score two or more runs this season. That is good for a .621 win percentage which would be the second best in baseball.
The reason they are below .500 this season is because they have been held under two runs 24 times this season. They are 2-22 in those games.The Tigers need for offense and the Orioles plethora of it makes a Skubal trade to Baltimore a possible win-win for both parties.
Potential Skubal Trade Packages
If this trade goes down, it would be one of the crazier trades that we have seen in recent history. When trying to formulate a package it always helps to go back and look at what deals have looked like in the past.
There are two trades that can be used to gauge what a Skubal trade might look like. The first is the Jose Berrios trade to Toronto. The differences here are that Berrios had one less year of control at the time of the trade. Berrios had also been incredibly durable but not nearly as dominant as Skubal has been this year. That trade cost Toronto the MLB No. 22 and 86 ranked prospects, Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson.
The second trade is the Juan Soto trade to San Diego in 2022. Obviously, Soto is a position player which is a massive difference. That is where the differences really stop.
Soto was traded with the same amount of team control as Skubal. Similar to Skubal, Soto was a young superstar and one of the best players at his position. The trade for Soto cost the Padres CJ Abrams (MLB No. 9), Robert Hassell III (MLB No. 37), MacKenzie Gore (MLB No. 86), James Wood (Padres No. 5), Jarlin Susana (Padres No. 19), and Luke Voit. This trade also sent Josh Bell to San Diego.
I believe that a trade for Skubal falls somewhere in the middle of these two. Pitchers are inherently less valuable than position players due to the higher risk of serious injury. The Soto trade also included Josh Bell making it more expensive.
Here are three packages that could happen in a Skubal trade to Baltimore.
The Starting Point
Tigers Receive: Heston Kjerstad – OF (JBB No. 40), Jordan Westburg – INF, Jud Fabian – OF (BAL No. 14), and Cade Povich – LHP (BAL No. 10)
Orioles Receive: Tarik Skubal – LHP
This is the bare minimum that the Tigers would likely entertain for Skubal. This package offers the Tigers three players that will start for them next season as well as a promising outfield prospect in Fabian.
Kjerstad has a 170 wRC+ in 60 plate appearances for Baltimore this season. He can play decent defense in a corner but more importantly he has 30 HR potential. Kjerstad has been one of the best if not the best bat in Triple-A this season.
