Middlesbrough’s play-off fate rests on the final day of what has been a tough Championship season

They say it’s the hope that kills you. But heading into Middlesbrough’s final game of the season needing a win over Coventry City to have a chance of making the play-offs, why not have a bit of optimism?

Granted, that’s not to ignore any of the reasons that ultimately see Boro in this position in the first place – needing to win but also relying on others on the final day if they are to finish in the top six. It’s been a frustrating season for Michael Carrick’s side overall, with many of their flaws explored again and again over the course of it

From a soft underbelly to their problems breaking low-block defences down, it’s fair to say there isn’t much optimism on Teesside heading to the Midlands for what promises to be a dramatic final day of the season. But there is some hope for Boro. We attempt to lighten the mood with our reasons for optimism that Boro can win at Coventry and make the play-offs.

Coventry City’s form

Boro go into the game with only one win in five, but Coventry’s form is not great either. They’ve won only three of their last nine games and have lost each of their last two – against relegation-threatened Luton and Plymouth no less. Granted, all three of their wins have come at home, where their form remains strong.

But to put themselves in this position, Frank Lampard’s run as manager has not been too dissimilar to Carrick’s first at Boro. The Sky Blues have climbed from 17th to sixth heading into the final day. With so much energy to overturn that, very similar to Boro two years ago, might Coventry have run out of steam?

They’ve shown signs of nerves too, with goalkeeper Brad Collins dropping a clanger to present Luton with their winning goal last time out. Coventry had such a strong run under Lampard to get in this position, but unlike Boro, they’ve not yet got over the line. Can Boro take advantage.

Clarity

Heading into the game Boro have complete clarity in terms of what they need to do. While what happens elsewhere could prove important, that will ultimately mean nothing if Boro don’t do their job and get the win. In that sense, there is complete clarity for Boro in what they need to do.

As for Coventry, a draw could end up being enough for them, depending on how results elsewhere go. No doubt keeping a close eye on how results are going – and no doubt unable to escape the excitement or anxiety it will create among supporters around the stadium – that could have an impact on the home side. Could they get caught between the dilemma of going gung-ho for the win or in being cautious to protect a draw if it reaches a stage where that’s enough?

The Mark Robins factor

Boro have a rotten recent record against Coventry. They’ve not won any of the last seven meetings against the Sky Blues, including that final game of the season clash at the Riverside two years ago, and the subsequent two legs in the play-off semi-final. What’s more, they’ve never won at the CBS Arena either.

None of that sounds like particular reason for a positive outlook, but what shouldn’t be forgotten is that record was all under the stewardship of Mark Robins. Even this season, when ultimately just a month away from being sacked, Coventry came to the Riverside and won after an early Hayden Hackney red card. Robins just seemed to have Carrick’s number.

But records are there to be broken. They already broke the Robins hoodoo earlier this year when they went to Stoke City and picked up an important win. So why not also break the Coventry curse too?

Nothing to lose

Boro go into the final day as the underdogs. There was expectation on them at the start of the season, but heading into the final game effectively bottom of the five-team table in the race for the play-offs. In that respect, Boro can approach this in a bit of a nothing-to-lose manner.

The pressure will be on Coventry, with a sea of Sky Blue expected inside the CBS Arena. The expectation will be on Frank Lampard’s side. Boro haven’t done too well under pressure this season. While the overall context of the game adds pressure, Boro’s position heading in perhaps takes that pressure off somewhat.

Match-winners

Boro haven’t played well, particularly from an attacking perspective, for quite some time. With that in mind, it’s difficult to justify any expectation of Carrick’s side suddenly turning on the style and rewinding to the kind of form they showed around November. Instead, they’re probably going to have to find a narrow win from somewhere.

In that regard, while attacking cohesion hasn’t been a particular positive of Boro’s of late, they do undoubtedly have individuals who can deliver in the big moment. Tommy Conway and Finn Azaz’s numbers this season speak for themselves. Marcus Forss has scored more than his fair share of big goals too, and feels due another.

Morgan Whittaker has struggled in a Boro shirt so far, but let’s not forget he scored a match-winner for Plymouth against Liverpool this season! Kelechi Iheanacho has largely been poor but even he’s already had one or two big moments and has the experience to handle the big occasion.

Goal difference

If Boro can get the win then they have good reason to feel they’ll have a good chance of getting into the play-offs. Their goal difference is at least five goals better than all of their top-six rivals. When all is said and done on Saturday afternoon, that goal difference could be key – as could knowing they don’t have to be gung-ho in their approach.

Games elsewhere

Should Boro get the result they need then they still need at least two results elsewhere to go their way – be that a Bristol City defeat at home to Preston, or Millwall and/or Blackburn failing to win at Burnley and Sheffield United. Bristol City’s game is a kind one on paper, but Preston are now fighting to avoid relegation. Millwall and Blackburn will both know their up against it.