Expert forecasts favor Kentucky vs. Tennessee

As the No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats and No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers prepare to square off in the Sweet 16 on Friday, analysts and experts are mostly going with the Vols to advance.

While the Wildcats won both regular-season matchups, the Volunteers are slight betting favorites at -4.5 points heading into the game, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

ESPN Analysts Favor Tennessee

Several ESPN analysts, including Jeff Borzello, Myron Medcalf, and Joe Lunardi, are backing Tennessee to finally get the upper hand after two losses to Kentucky this season.

Borzello pointed to Tennessee’s improved guard play, with Chaz Lanier and Zakai Zeigler combining for impressive performances in the opening rounds. He also noted that Kentucky’s hot 3-point shooting in the first two matchups (12-for-24 in both games) might not be sustainable against Tennessee’s typically strong perimeter defense.

While most ESPN experts favor Tennessee, Seth Greenberg believes Kentucky has the edge, citing its matchup advantages and defensive improvements.

Greenberg pointed to Kentucky’s superior three-point shooting in both previous matchups. Tennessee shot just 14-for-63 (22.2%) from three in those games, while Kentucky hit 23-for-48 (47.9%). If Tennessee can force Kentucky off the perimeter, it could change the outcome, but Greenberg remains skeptical.

“The best defenders for Kentucky, Lamont Butler and Otega Oweh, are elite at limiting opposing guards,” Greenberg said. “If they take out Zeigler and Lanier, Tennessee will struggle offensively.”