Controversial moves that will give Edmonton Oilers edge over Los Angeles Kings
I’m going to propose three controversial moves that will give the Edmonton Oilers an edge over the Los Angeles Kings. At least that’s how I see it, having done video review of all goals and Grade A shots for and against the Oilers this year, and for every season since 2010-11.
The three moves are: starting smaller, puck-moving d-man Cam Dineen over bigger, hard-hitting d-man Josh Brown; finding a way to get rookie Noah Philp into the line-up over a more veteran player; and if both Trent Frederic and Evander Kane are well enough to play in Game One against the Kings, sitting veterans Kasperi Kapanen and Mattias Janmark to make way for them.
Kane and Frederic over Kapanen and Janmark
I’ll start with that final one since it’s the least controversial. I don’t think you’ll get much of an argument from anyone that if these players are healthy, Kane and Frederic are both better two-way players than Kapanen and Janmark, and they’re also far more physical.
Edmonton is not going to sit Corey Perry, not after his 19-goal season, strong leadership, and decent two-way play this year. Jeff Skinner might come out for Kane or Frederic, but Skinner has played his best offence of the year in recent weeks. He can score or assist in a series where goals and assists might be hard to come by at even strength.
Kapanen and Janmark have been the two weakest regular wingers when it comes to two-way play this season and it’s not that close. Neither creates much on the attack, and Kapanen is an iffy defender at even strength.
The coaches might want them in the line-up as they are regular penalty killers, but Edmonton will likely be better off bringing in Frederic and Kane when they’re ready, then going with two two-man units (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Adam Henrique, Vassili Podkolzin and Connor Brown) on the PK. Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman, Viktor Arvidsson or Leon Draisaitl could also get some PK shifts against Los Angeles’ five forward power play unit.
Dineen over Brown
The Oilers had Brown on their third-pairing at practice today, teamed up with fellow right shot d-man Ty Emberson. But this pairing would likely be ruthlessly exploited by the Kings, having particular trouble beating the L.A. forecheck with passing plays.
When it comes to their play on Grade A shots, the smaller Dineen has been far superior to the bigger Brown. All due respect to Brown’s toughness, I’ve yet to see the agility and hockey sense for him to hang in the NHL in a regular season game, let alone a playoff game against a tough forechecking team like Los Angeles.
Dineen can rip sharp passes and his defensive play is no worse than Brown’s defensive play, with Brown getting beat by speed, Dineen by strength. Dineen also takes a few too many chances on the attack, leaving his team exposed on defence. Brown gets caught out of position as he struggles to keep up.
Of course neither play will play if Troy Stecher or John Klingberg are healthy enough to play in Game One. I’m bullish on either the smart and aggressive Stecher or the highly-skilled Klingberg holding their own in limited minutes if they get the chance. I’m not nearly so bullish on Dineen, but he’s far more likely to help the Oilers win than is Brown. It’s not that close, but the Oilers may well have a preference for Brown’s size and aggression in the line-up.
Philp in the line-up
Noah Philp has been a solid two-way centre for the Oilers when he’s had a chance to play. In limited minutes he’s outperformed veterans Derek Ryan and Adam Henrique. Philp is faster than either and wins more board battles. Henrique has looked slow in recent games, being the prime culprit on a number of goals against.
I don’t expect Edmonton to replace Henrique for Philp given that Henrique played so well in the playoffs last year, he’s counted as a top penalty killer, and he’s far superior to Philp on face-offs. But if it comes down to it, I’d go with Philp over Ryan, Janmark or Kapanen as a fourth line centre. He’s simply a better player at this point.
