Revenge over No. 7 Purdue — and a well-timed loss by Michigan State — has put the Michigan Wolverines alone in first place in the Big Ten standings with seven games left to play. The margin for error is minimal, but Torvik gives Michigan nearly a one-in-three chance of winning the conference outright and almost a 60 percent chance of securing a share of the title. What a turnaround from a year ago.
The remaining path is anything but simple, though. Up next are back-to-back rivalry games, starting with a trip to Columbus. The Ohio State Buckeyes are just .500 in conference play but have shown an ability to beat top opponents, which has landed them in the KenPom top 30. Michigan is rolling, but there is no better way to kill momentum than losing to a rival.
No. 20 Michigan Wolverines (19-5, 11-2) at Ohio State Buckeyes (15-10, 7-7)
Date & Time: Sunday, Feb. 16, 1 p.m. ET
Location: Schottenstein Center, Columbus, OH
TV/Streaming: CBS
Jake Diebler, who earned the permanent head coaching job over the offseason, has guided the Buckeyes to the top half of the Big Ten. Wins over Kentucky, Purdue, and Maryland stand out, and none of their losses are damaging from a resume standpoint. As a result, bracketologists have Ohio State firmly in the NCAA Tournament field, with most brackets placing them as either a No. 9 or No. 10 seed.
These rivals split their home-and-home series last season, with Michigan’s victory in Ann Arbor ending up as one of just three conference wins. The rematch in Columbus was much uglier, with Michigan rapidly approaching the end of Juwan Howard’s tenure. Since Covid, Michigan holds a narrow 4-3 edge in basketball; the football series, for those interested, is 4-0 in favor of the maize and blue over the last four seasons.
One Big Question: Who steps up in crunch time?
Since the loss to Minnesota, all six of Michigan’s wins have come by four points or fewer. The Buckeyes have also found themselves in plenty of close games in 2025, but with just a 4-3 record in two-possession games since the calendar turned. This projects to be another tightly contested battle, and Michigan’s resilience could be the deciding factor, especially in a hostile environment.
Ohio State fouls a lot, so Michigan must capitalize at the free-throw line down the stretch. Danny Wolf and Tre Donaldson are the team’s main ball handlers, but both shoot under 70 percent at the line. Staying cool under pressure will be imperative on Sunday. Another key factor is the turnover battle — while the Buckeyes have been careless with the ball at times, they have been more cautious in February. A significant shot volume imbalance could be tough to overcome in two consecutive games.
One Thing to Watch: A warm welcome
In his second game coming off the bench, Roddy Gayle made a huge impact against Purdue, particularly in keeping Michigan afloat during the first half. His first double-digit performance in five outings came at an ideal time, as the Ohio State transfer is sure to hear it from the crowd this weekend. Gayle’s contributions are not necessarily critical to Michigan’s success, but when he is on, his impact is meaningful, especially given Dusty May’s limited bench.
Turnovers and poor decision-making marred his cold streak, and I do have some concern as he returns to Columbus. However, his willingness to attack the basket — and his ability to convert at the free-throw line — could be pivotal against Ohio State’s top-30 defense. Gayle will undoubtedly want to prove a point, but he must stay level-headed and pick his spots to help Michigan head home with a win.
